Bayesian panel quantile regression for binary outcomes with correlated random effects: An application on crime recidivism in Canada

Vous êtes ici

Accueil » Bayesian panel quantile regression for binary outcomes with correlated random effects: An application on crime recidivism in Canada
24 Janvier 2020
Types de publication: 
Cahier de recherche
Auteur(s): 
Georges Bresson
Guy Lacroix
Mohammad Arshad Rahman
Axe de recherche: 
Politiques publiques et réglementation
Mots-clés: 
Bayesian inference
correlated random effects
crime
panel data
quantile regression
recidivism
Classification JEL: 
C11
C31
C33
C35
K14
K42


This article develops a Bayesian approach for estimating panel quantile regression with binary outcomes in the presence of correlated random effects. We construct a working likelihood using an asymmetric Laplace (AL) error distribution and combine it with suitable prior distributions to obtain the complete joint posterior distribution. For posterior inference, we propose two Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithms but prefer the algorithm that exploits the blocking procedure to produce lower autocorrelation in the MCMC draws. We also explain how to use the MCMC draws to calculate the marginal effects, relative risk and odds ratio. The performance of our preferred algorithm is demonstrated in multiple simulation studies and shown to perform extremely well. Furthermore, we implement the proposed framework to study crime recidivism in Quebec, a Canadian Province, using a novel data from the administrative correctional files. Our results suggest that the recently implemented “tough-on-crime” policy of the Canadian government has been largely successful in reducing the probability of repeat offenses in the post-policy period. Besides, our results support existing findings on crime recidivism and offer new insights at various quantiles.
 

Contact: 

Georges Bresson : Department of Economics, Université Paris II.
Guy Lacroix : Department of Economics, Université Laval.
Mohammad Arshad Rahman : Department of Economic Sciences, Indian Institute of Technology.